When Should You Increase Your Bet In Blackjack

Gambling Tips > Blackjack

Oscar’s Grind is a fairly complicated strategy that involves increasing your bets following a losing streak. You start out by choosing a unit size, such as $10 or $20. You then wager one unit until you run into a losing streak. As soon as your losing streak ends, you increase your bet size by one unit.
In short and sweet terms, it’s when you double your bet in the middle of a hand (equal to your ante) in return for only one extra card. Yep, it’s risky. But, it can also increase your payout. In order for the risk to pay off, you need to double down at a time when you have the advantage against the dealer. When You Should Double Down.
As a player you want to capitalize on a good run of cards and this strategy has some merits. Start with a 2 unit bet. If you win you reduce the bet to one unit. If you win that bet you increase to 3 units. Once the dealer wins you go back to your original 2 unit bet. A run of 10 hands could look like this: Wager Result +/-2 W +2; 1 W +3; 2 W +5.

The way you win at blackjack is by playing according to perfect strategy and grinding out wins. If you are lucky enough to be dealt a 20, there is absolutely no reason you should split up your 10s. But that doesn’t stop some gamblers from trying to take advantage of their luck. The only hand that can beat a 20 is a 21, obviously.

10 Crimes of Blackjack

When Should You Increase Your Bet In Blackjack Winnings

By Henry Tamburin

Many players make horrible mistakes when they play blackjack. Here’s a list of the 10 worst crimes a player can make.

The crime: Believing blackjack is all luck.

If you think that all you need is a little bit of “luck” to win at blackjack, I strongly suggest that you stop playing the game. Blackjack is not all luck. The reason? The odds of winning are not the same from one hand to the next because the removal of a card from a deck of cards will affect the odds (sometimes in your favor, other times in the dealer’s favor). It’s true that on individual hands, or even a single playing session, luck can influence the outcome, but in the long term, the player’s skill will overtake luck and a player can win more than he loses, or at the minimum, play almost even with the house.

The crime: Not using basic strategy.

In was back in 1956 when a group of scientists changed the game of blackjack forever when they statistically determined the absolute correct way to play every hand. This strategy became known as the basic playing strategy and by using this strategy to play every hand, the house edge can be reduced to a minuscule 0.2 to 0.5% (depends on the rules and number of decks). The bottom line is this: blackjack is not a guessing game. If you hold a 10-5 and the dealer shows an 8 upcard, there is one and only one correct play. It doesn’t matter whether you are playing in a Midwest casino, in Las Vegas, or Atlantic City, or whether you just lost five hands in a row, or just won five hands in a row, or whether you are winning a lot or losing or lot, the correct play for this hand is to hit. To be skillful at blackjack means you almost have to be robotic and make the same correct plays according to the basic playing strategy hand after hand after hand. You don’t hit 10-5 against a dealer 8 sometimes and stand othertimes. You always hit. If you can’t or won’t accept this, then you should hang up your playing cards and play a different game because you will never make it at blackjack.

The crime: Betting on side bets.

Nowadays, casinos have implemented side bets on blackjack tables as a way to increase their revenue because their edge on the game itself is razor thin. These side bets are cheap; usually, it only costs a buck to make them and they come in all different flavors: Pair Square (bet that you will be dealt a pair); Lucky Ladies (bet that you’re initial hand totals 20); Bonus Blackjack (bet that the dealer or player gets a blackjack), and so on. The problem with these side bets is that the house edge is high and although you might get lucky and win a few side bets, in the long run you’ll be donating a lot of money to the casino coffers by making these bets.

The crime: Using a Progressive Betting System.

The majority of blackjack players use some form of progressive betting which means the player sizes his bet based on whether he won or lost the previous hand. The problem with progressive betting systems is that they don’t change the casino’s edge one iota. The odd of winning the next hand in blackjack isn’t dependent on what happened in previous hands (it is influenced by which cards were removed from the deck). So a player who uses a progressive betting system is deluding himself into thinking he has found the way to beat the house.

The crime: Playing with a Continuous Shuffling Machine.

A continuous shuffling machine (CSM) is an automatic shuffler that randomly shuffles the cards after each round. Many casinos are replacing the traditional automatic shuffler with CSMs. The reason is because when a CSM is used, the house edge remains virtually the same from one round to the next. When a casino uses a CSM, they can also get roughly 20% more hands dealt per hour vs. a traditional automatic shuffler. The more hands that a recreational player faces per hour, the greater will be the player’s theoretical loss. So playing on a table that uses a CSM is a no-no. You should always play where the dealer is using either a traditional shuffler (where about 70% of the cards are dealt from the shuffler before all the cards are shuffled), or in a single- and two-deck game where the dealer manually shuffles the cards.

The crime: Playing a single-deck game that pays 6-5 for blackjack

Many casinos have implemented single-deck blackjack games where a player receives only a 6-5 payoff for a blackjack instead of the traditional 3-2 payoff (a 6-5 payoff means on a $10 bet you would get paid $12 for a blackjack instead of $15).These games are really bad news because the 6-5 payoff increases the house edge to roughly 1.4%. It’s a real crime to play any game where the casino pays only 6-5 on blackjacks.

The crime: Not scouting the tables

The playing rules are not necessarily the same from one table to the next or for that matter from one casino to the next. You shouldn’t just jump into a game without first knowing what the rules are and whether there are better rules on other tables. For example, a table where the dealer hits soft 17 is worst for a player than if the dealer stands on soft 17. Blackjack players should know which rules are player-friendly and which favor the house, and then scout the tables to find the best set of player-friendly rules.

The crime: Playing when tired or inebriated

How many times have you seen the bleary-eyed player playing blackjack? Or the player that has consumed one to many alcoholic drinks. If you are tired, you shouldn’t be playing blackjack because you will be making too many playing mistakes. Ditto for consuming many alcoholic drinks while playing. Playing blackjack skillfully requires concentration and anything that disturbs your concentration will result in you losing more money (that’s why drinks are free to players).

The crime: Not paying attention to the cards on the layout

Not too many recreational players pay attention to the cards on the layout. That’s a big mistake. For example, if you have seen a disproportionate number of small cards vs. large cards in the first couple of rounds after a shuffle, now would be a good time to bump up your bet slightly. On the other hand, if you see nothing but aces and faces in the early rounds, you should definitely not increase the size of your bet.

The crime: Not getting rated

You should always get rated when you play blackjack. The reason? This allows you to receive comps from the casino (free meals, free rooms, free shows, etc.). It cost you nothing to get rated. Just sign up for their player’s card and show it to the dealer every time you play. Your level of comps depends upon your level of play. You can always check with a casino host to find out what kind of comps you will be eligible to receive based on your betting level and the amount of time you play. The comps you receive will lower your cost of playing and sometimes they will turn a negative expectation game (where the house has the overall edge) into a positive expectation game (the game with the comps will result in the player having the monetary edge). The point is that you won’t get any comps unless you get rated, so don’t miss this opportunity to get your share of the billions that casinos give away annually to players just for playing.

Appendices
Miscellaneous
External Links

Introduction

Let me say loud and clear that card counting is hard and is not as rewarding as television and the movies make it out to be. If it were an easy way to make money, then everyone would be doing it.

If you do not know the basic strategy, trying to count cards is highly ill-advised. Experienced card counters still play by the basic strategy the great majority of the time.There can be no short cut around learning the basic strategy, those who attempt card counting without a firm foundation in the basic strategy are making a big mistake.

When Should You Increase Your Bet In Blackjack Real Money

To be a successful counter you have to be able to countdown a deck fast and memorize large tables of numbers as well as make it look like you're just a casual player.Furthermore, with today's rules, a realistic advantage the counter will have is only 0.5% to 1.5%. You will not win money slowly and gradually but your bankroll will go up and down like a roller coaster in the short run. Only in the long run, over hundreds of hours of playing, can you count on winning.

The underlying principle behind card counting is that a deck rich in tens and aces is good for the player, a deck rich in small cards is good for the dealer. When the counter knows the odds are in his favor, he will bet more, and adjust his playing strategy to stand, double, and split in some plays where basic strategy says to stand. All the options the player has at his disposal favor the player even more when the deck is ten and ace rich. Here is a list and a brief reason why.

Standing: The player may stand on stiff totals of 12 to 16, and the dealer may not. In ten-rich shoes, hitting stiff hands becomes more dangerous, favoring the more conservative player strategy.

Insurance: On average, when the dealer has an ace up, the remaining cards in blackjack will be 30.87% tens (based on a six-deck game), making insurance a bad bet. However, if the probability gets above 33.33%, it becomes a good bet. Counters know when the remaining cards are ten-rich, and make powerful insurance bets at those times.

Doubling: Usually, when the player doubles he wants a ten. In ten-rich shoes, the player makes better double downs, getting closer to 21.

Blackjack: Both player and dealer will see more blackjacks, but the player gets paid 3 to 2, and the dealer does not.

Surrender: The alternative to surrendering is much worse in ten-rich shoes. If the alternative is hitting, the player is more likely to bust. If the player would otherwise stand, due to the high count, the dealer is still more likely to get a 10. While the counter will surrender more in high counts, the savings will be greater.

Splits: The player is usually splitting high cards and/or off of a weak dealer card. Either way, a ten-rich shoe helps the player get higher totals, and increases the probability of the dealer busting.

I'm working on an in-depth study of how these effects break down. The contribution to each factor depends on the rules, deck penetration, and bet spread. However, based on average conditions in a six-deck shoe, my initial results break down the benefits of counting as follows.

Why Card Counting Works

Player Option	Portion of Benefit
Stand	40%
Insurance	34%
Double	9%
Blackjack	7%
Surrender	6%
Split	4%

The probability for insurance was taken from Don Schlesinger's 'Illustrious 18' list, as found in Blackjack Attack. The rest of the breakdown is mine.

To gauge the richness of the deck in good cards, the player will keep track of the cards the are already played. Strategies vary, but all assign a point value to each card. For example, the hi-lo count assigns a value of +1 to 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6, and -1 to tens and aces. Everything else is 0, or neutral. At the beginning of a deck or shoe, the count is 0. Then the counter constantly adds and subtracts from the count, according to the cards played. This running total is called the 'running count.' A positive count means that a disproportional number of small cards have already been played, which means that the deck is rich in large cards. To determine the 'true count,' divide the running count by the number of decks left to be played, or in some strategies, the number of half decks. This will tell you the relative richness of the deck in good cards.

The true count is used in two ways, to determine how much to bet and how to play your hand. Unless it is obvious, every situation has a line in which you should play one way if the count is above the line and another if below. For example, a 12 against a 6 may dictate that you stand if the true count is -1 or greater and hit if the true count is less than -1. The counter will also bet more when the true count is high, meaning the deck is rich in good cards.

A problem arises when it comes to treating aces. The player should bet more when the deck is rich in aces since they add to the probability of getting a blackjack. However, when it comes to playing your hand, the number of aces left is not nearly as important as the number of tens, so it is desirable, but not necessary, to distinguish between tens and aces. Some card counting strategies keep a side count of aces. In the Hi-Opt I and Revere Plus/Minus aces are counted separately and only considered when making the wager. This is a more accurate and powerful way to play than assigning a negative value to aces and not keeping a side count, as some strategies do. Yet, many people feel that for the beginner it is too confusing to keep two counts. A player is more likely to make mistakes keeping two counts and that costs money. The efficiency of a strategy that does not keep a side count of aces is only modestly less, but you likely will gain more from fewer mistakes made. Different experts fall in various places in the spectrum in terms of what to recommend for the beginner. The Zen Count takes the middle ground and gives aces a value of -1 and tens -2. Personally, I have tried both and would recommend against a count that requires a side count of aces to a person ready to take up card counting. The Uston Advanced Plus/Minus is a good strategy that does not involve an ace side count and can be found in the book Million Dollar Blackjack. How well you know a counting strategy is much more important than which strategy you know.

Legally speaking, the player may play blackjack any way he wants without cheating or using a computer, and the casinos may do anything from making conditions unfavorable to barring, in an effort to stop anyone who they deem has an advantage over the game. Much of the challenge of card counting is avoiding suspicion that you are anything but a normal non-counting player. The most obvious indication that somebody is counting is that they make a substantial increase in bet size after a lot of small cards leave the table. Although the greater the factor by which you can increase your bet the greater your odds of winning, more than doubling your last bet is a fast way to arouse 'heat'from the dealer and pit boss. Usually when casinos employees realize you are counting, they will either shuffle the cards whenever you increase your bet, essentially removing any advantage, or ask you to leave.

This is only scraping the surface of the subject of card counting. I suggest the following pages of mine.

Practice

Practice your card counting skills with our trainer.

Internal Links

Blackjack main page.
Hi-Lo Count.
The Ace-Five Count, possibly the easiest way to count cards.
Book review section, for suggestions on good blackjack books.

External Resources

Blackjackinfo - A complete course covering everything from basic strategy to card counting
BJ21 - By Stanford Wong; A membership based community covering all aspects of card counting.

Written by: Michael Shackleford